Some Recent Events Worth Noting

Last week HarperCollins announced that they were making over 5,000 of their backlist books available only as print on demand. According to the corporate press release from Brian Murray, the President and CEO:

As a publisher, it is our vision to make every HarperCollins book available to consumers in stores for immediate purchase – either from stock or through the Espresso Book Machine. We are initiating this program with nearly 5,000 black and white trade paperback books that comprise our active backlist. Hardcovers, mass-markets and illustrated books will not be available in this initial phase.

We see this as an opportunity to eliminate situations where our backlist titles are “temporarily out of stock.” The Espresso Book Machine, combined with high quality HarperCollins backlist titles, allows independent bookstore to sell HarperCollins books that they were previously unable to carry in their store due to space limitations. Now, it just takes the push of a button. The price and royalty paid on sales of books manufactured on the Espresso Book Machine are the same as books that are printed traditionally.

Now don't get me wrong, I love the idea of constant availability of books. Many times I've heard about a certain book or author and tried tracking down one of their books with little success because most times the book is out of print and only available at eBay and I'm not one to buy a lot of stuff from eBay.

So there's that.

But let's be honest here: what HarperCollins is really trying to do is keep these books "in print" so they can retain the rights to the ebooks, which will sell probably one hundred times more than the print on demand books.

Why?

Because these books will only be available through these Espresso Book Machines which are rare right now, and even if and when every bookstore gets one, so what? Authors rely on visibility in bookstores; readers like to browse shelves and page through books to find new authors. Readers can’t quite do this with a kiosk. If anything, the reader will have to have prior knowledge of a certain author or book first before even going to the bookstore, and if that’s the case, why not just order the book online?

After all, TechCrunch recently predicted that bookstores won't be around for much longer anyway:

2013 – EBook sales surpass all other book sales, even used books. EMagazines begin cutting into paper magazine sales. 2014 – Publishers begin “subsidized” e-reader trials. Newspapers, magazines, and book publishers will attempt to create hardware lockins for their wares. They will fail. 2015 – The death of the Mom and Pops. Smaller book stores will use the real estate to sell coffee and Wi-Fi. Collectable bookstores will still exist in the margins. 2016 – Lifestyle magazines as well as most popular Conde Nast titles will go tablet-only. 2018 – The last Barnes & Noble store converts to a cafe and digital access point. 2019 – B&N and Amazon’s publishing arms – including self-pub – will dwarf all other publishing. 2019 – The great culling of the publishers. Smaller houses may survive but not many of them. The giants like Random House and Penguin will calve their smaller houses into e-only ventures. The last of the “publisher subsidized” tablet devices will falter. 2020 – Nearly every middle school to college student will have an e-reader. Textbooks will slowly disappear. 2023 – Epaper will make ereaders as thin as a few sheets of paper. 2025 – The transition is complete even in most of the developing world. The book is, at best, an artifact and at worst a nuisance. Book collections won’t disappear – hold-outs will exist and a subset of readers will still print books – but generally all publishing will exist digitally.

Of course, that's just one guy's prediction, but if the last few years are any indication, the changes in publishing are just beginning. After all, many literary agents are beginning to get into the e-book publishing game, such as my own agency. I had heard talk about this happening awhile ago but they just officially announced it earlier this week:

Trident Media Group, one of the world's leading literary agencies, today announced that it is launching a new e-book initiative, Trident E-Book Operations. This division will create, manage and implement innovative e-book strategies for its authors, including the distribution of a variety of e-books directly to a large number of e-tailers in North America and internationally. Authors will have more flexibility than ever before, as well as new potential domestic and foreign revenue streams.

Robert Gottlieb, Chairman of Trident, said "Trident has been a leader in innovative approaches in the representation of its authors, including in the international markets with its "hot list", at the international book fairs and in new audio licensing. We will continue to manage all facets of our clients' businesses by the extension of our services into the ever-changing e-book publishing business around the world. Trident Media Group will devise strategies to maximize value for its authors in the new and complex e-book publishing field. Trident will not become a publisher, but will instead continue in its new e-book operations to have itself aligned with its clients whose interests we serve as an agent and manager."

I find it interesting that Gottlieb says Trident won't become a publisher, because that's what they're doing. They're not the only ones, though. My old agency is now doing the same thing, and Richard Curtis, a very well known literary agent, runs E-Reads, which has been around since 1999.

But this is 2011.

And Amazon just announced three new Kindles, two of which are priced until $100, and a very reasonably priced tablet that will be released later this year.

Which means even more people will have e-readers.

Which means this is a better time than any to have reasonably priced e-books available.

Again, just like this post's heading, some recent events worth noting.

Survey Says ...

So there was this survey recently that states "One in Six Americans Now Use E-Reader with One in Six Likely to Purchase in Next Six Months."

That's promising, right?

Well, yes and no.

Don't get me wrong, I would love it if that statement was one hundred percent accurate, but I find myself often distrusting surveys. After all, they always sample a small portion of the population and somehow base their study on that small portion. From the study:

The options keep changing and bookstores are starting to feel the pressure. One major chain closed its doors for good this month while some of the others have rolled out their own e-Reader devices and are upgrading them regularly. Even The New York Times has changed the way it looks at bestsellers. It used to be just fiction and non-fiction; now it's also print versus e-Reader. And this is for a good reason as one in six Americans (15%) uses an e-Reader device up from less than one in ten (8%) a year ago. Also, among those who do not have an e-Reader, one in six (15%) say they are likely to get an e-Reader device in the next six months.

Now how many people were included in the study?

Why, only "2,183 adults surveyed online between July 11 and 18, 2011."

In a country of over 300 million people, 2,183 ain't much.

In fact, if the study were one hundred percent accurate, that would mean in a country of over 300 million people, there would be 45 million with e-readers, and another 45 million likely to purchase an e-reader in the next six months.

Seems high, but I guess that's believable.

As a writer who has begun putting a lot of faith in the fact that ebooks are indeed the future, these stats should make me happy.

Honestly, though, this survey is like any survey: a crapshoot.

Still, if nothing else, it's definitely something worth thinking about.

But let's just see where we are in six months, shall we?

Adaptation Redux

I wanted to follow up on this blog post I did the other week about adapting to the ever-quickening changes in publishing. I had mentioned how I used to check the New York Times Bestseller lists weekly but failed to mention what I've been checking in its place.

You see, landing on the New York Times Bestseller list is basically every writer's dream. The moment it happens, you become a New York Times Bestselling author, which will be printed on all of your books for rest of your life. I think if I ever became a NYT Bestseller, I would want it added to my tombstone.

But the thing is, it's pretty difficult to land on that particular list. It's not an exact science in terms of weekly sales -- unlike the USA Today Bestseller list which is based on BookScan numbers -- but still, for the most part, it does represent the bestselling titles for that week.

And the thing about bestseller lists, once you get on it, you usually stay there for a bit.

The reason being, of course, is that many readers check these lists and then buy their books based on what's on the list. So when a book appears there, more and more readers buy that book, and so the book maintains that spot for a week or two or three.

Except the truth of the matter is that nine times out of ten those books are on the bestseller lists because of the publishers. The publishers put in a lot of money -- make a large investment -- so, when the book's released, they're going to do what they can to earn back on that investment. Which means a much, much, much larger marketing push than for your every day novel that was given a small advance.

Of course, reader word of mouth sometimes help, but even that isn't always a guarantee because then you still need to rely on the publisher to have enough copies in stock to sell. And then, too, it helps if those copies are actually in bookstores, preferably on those tables in the front when you first walk inside.

Anyway, what I've found myself checking more and more is the Kindle Top 100 (which is not a weekly list but an hourly list). This is a list that, like the New York Times, every writer wants to be on. Only here it's more realistic for just about anybody to actually make it.

If you look at the top 10 Kindle titles right now, two of them are by self-published writers. The one book has been in the top 100 for fifty-five days; the other book has been there for thirty-two days.

How have they stayed there so long? Well, because of visibility. When readers check the top 100 -- and believe me, they check often -- those are the first books that they see. And guess what -- those two books are both 99 cents each. An impulse buy. So readers buy it, simple as that. Not every reader buys those books -- I know I don't -- but enough that it maintains that spot.

It seems 99 cents is the price for self-published books to get to the top 100 and stay there for awhile. Granted, I have seen self-published books priced at $1.99 and $2.99 get there and stay for awhile, but not as long as the 99 centers. Which again makes sense as it's an impulse buy for the reader.

For the writer, though, is 99 cents a good price to sell a novel?

It earns you 35 cents a unit sold, yes, and when you're only selling a handful a month, that doesn't add up to much.

But when you're in the top 100? You better believe you're selling a couple hundred a day. And the more days you stay in the top 100, the more you climb, the more you sell.

So in that case, a 99 cent ebook makes you some decent money.

A $2.99 ebook, earning you 70% royalties, will earn you even more.

Even if you were to sell two hundred units at $2.99 a day, that earns you about $400.00. Stay there for even ten days ... that's more than many of us make in an entire month, and that's just on one book.

But, you're probably asking, how does one get to the Kindle Top 100?

Well, that's the thing. Nobody really knows. There are authors I've seen who have made it and they're not even certain how they did so. It all comes down to luck, really. And, well, having a great cover and product description and -- bonus -- a great book.

But yeah, luck is a major factor.

Me, I've seen my sales rise and fall over the course of a day and sometimes an hour. Once The Serial Killer's Wife got as high a ranking as 2,788, and I think I had sold between ten and twenty (or maybe thirty) that day, and those had all come around the same time. It is possible to manipulate sales; some writers try to get their fans to buy their book at a certain time of day all at the same time. Which is a great idea. If enough people are willing to do it at the same time, the sales ranking of the book will certainly soar, and if the writer is lucky, they might just land in the Kindle Top 100, where readers who weren't familiar with their work might give them a try.

Granted, no matter what we as writers do, there's no guarantee that our books will ever reach the Kindle Top 100, just as there's no guarantee they'll ever reach the New York Times Bestseller list.

Except in the case of the Kindle Top 100, everyone has a chance.

And, personally, I like those odds.

My Columbia Hint Fiction Art Show Trip

Early in the morning last week I arrived to the Philadelphia International Airport for my 10:15 a.m. flight to Columbia, Missouri only to find out that it was delayed. Thanks a lot, Southwest! Anyway, on my way to my departing gate I happened to pass this sad sight.

So what was behind the curtain? One of the CEOs getting a personal body massage from Carrot Top. Okay, I'm kidding. What was actually behind the curtain was one of the CEOs slowly and methodically ripping out pages from every single book they had like Balki Bartokomous in The Langoliers.

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JwLmZCMV9o4

(Note: that's not a true scene from the movie, at least not really, but still you get the idea.)

Finally my flight arrived and I lined up because that's the way Southwest works -- no assigned seating, so it's like a free-for-all once you get on the plane. During my flight I read Stephen King's latest ebook Mile 81, which I found pretty disappointing for several reasons but that's not what this post is about so let's move on, shall we?

I landed in St. Louis, got my rental car, and drove the two hours or so to Columbia. I was well prepared and brought along an audiobook for the drive -- Live Wire by Harlan Coben, read by Steven Weber. I wasn't scheduled to speak until 5:00 and arrived to the art gallery with a few hours to spare. Here's what I saw when I first arrived.

I met with Diana Moxon, the director of the Columbia Art League who really put this entire thing together and made it possible to bring me out to Columbia for the opening reception, as well as several other people at the art league. In fact, I met a slew of people during my short time in Columba and wish I could mention each and every name here but there were just so many! Anyway, we chatted for a bit and I took some pictures and then 5:00 rolled around and Diana introduced me to a room packed with people in the lobby past the art gallery (you can sort of see it through the open doors in the picture above) and I did my usual spiel about Hint Fiction and read some of the stories from the book and answered some questions. Then it was 6:00 and the opening reception was in full force and the place was packed.

From what Diana later said, this was a tough exhibit for many artists. They only had 70 pieces in the show total when they usually have closer to 100. Many of the artists would come in after having read the book and say something to the extent that they enjoyed the book but were afraid they just couldn't come up with anything good enough for the show. And it was interesting, Diana said, that it seemed many of the artists were trying to take a more literal approach to the art. And while there was certainly many literal approaches, there were also just as many abstract works as well. Take the piece that won first place, for instance.

This piece is based on "A Dignified Purpose" by Ty Miller, which was actually the most popular story used at the show (there were four other pieces in the show also based on the story). Here's the story:

She loved to steal spoons. She didn't need them; she just enjoyed having a hundred tiny silver mirrors to see what no one else could.

And you may be asking yourself, So where are the spoons? 

Again, this is an abstract piece that uses the idea of "a hundred tiny silver mirrors" to show a hundred tiny different images of a life that's kept in a presumably locked box. There's actually a very sweet but sad story behind the inspiration for this piece, about a death in the artist's family, that brings to it even more meaning.

I was asked to pick my favorite piece in the show, which was impossible because they were all so great. I did, however, keep coming back to one piece in particular and which I chose as the "Editor's Choice." This one is based on "Knock Knock Joke" by Nick Arvin, and while the piece isn't a direct representation of the story, it still does a great job relating the same mood (I especially love the drop of blood in the final panel as the flower bleeds).

The very awesome Scott Garson came out for the reading and stayed through the entire two hours of the opening reception so we could hang out afterward. He ended up taking me to a bar called Booches, which is so renowned it even has its own Wikipedia page, and we had beer and their famous cheeseburgers and just talked about the normal stuff writers talk about. Then it was getting late so we parted ways and I managed to get myself to my hotel which, to my amazement, contained a jacuzzi.

I did not, however, use the jacuzzi for fear that it might somehow send me back to 1986, which would have been difficult to navigate because I would have only been five at the time.

The next morning was quite a full day. First Diana picked me up and drove me to our radio interview which was at KFRU for David Lile's morning show. Then it was off to a quick breakfast at a renowned greasy spoon called Ernie's before we headed to the Lee Expressive Arts Elementary School where the fifth grade class had written and illustrated their very own Hint Fiction stories. I talked with the kids briefly about Hint Fiction and then stood back and watched as they each got up and presented their own stories. It was very awesome! You can check out an article written about my visit there (beware that the picture of me is quite unflattering). After that we then went over to the University of Missouri campus bookstore to do a little reading, then, after that, went to the town's public library to do a talk about Hint Fiction. As you can imagine, it was a very busy and Hint Fiction filled two days.

My deepest thanks and gratitude to Diana Moxon for not just listening to my NPR interview last year but having the wonderful foresight in thinking the concept might make a great art show. Everyone I talked to said that Diana continuously comes up with great exhibit ideas and I'm proud that Hint Fiction could be a part of it. My thanks too to Scott Garson and to the artists who produced works and everyone who came out and said hello and the Lee students who wrote their stories and just everybody I met. It was a great trip.

The Columbia Art League's Hint Fiction show is currently open until November 5th, so if you happen to get a chance, definitely check it out.

Harlan Coben On Writing

When it comes to thriller writers, Harlan Coben is definitely at the front of the pack. And to help promote his new YA book Shelter, he wrote a little piece for the Wall Street Journal on the three steps to becoming a great writer. Will they guarentee every writer success? No, of course not. Still, the man speaks truth (I especially love the second half):

You have to sit your butt in the chair and write. You have to do that every day. That doesn’t mean you lie on your couch and play with your navel. That doesn’t mean you go shopping when the words don’t flow the way you think they should. That never works. It means you sit your butt in the chair and get to work. No excuses. And just so we’re clear: Outlining is not writing. Coming up with ideas is not writing. Researching is not writing. Creating characters is not writing. Only writing is writing (yes, that’s deep). So cut it out with the writer’s block and the waiting for the muse to arrive and the artistic pretenses. That’s all nonsense.

(Amen thinks the guy who just updated his blog instead of doing actual writing.)